DGermany has become the most important destination for Ukrainians who have fled their country due to the Russian aggression. In contrast, the number of those seeking refuge in Poland is decreasing. The Center for Economic Strategy (CES) in Kiev, which has been analyzing the migration movements since the beginning of the invasion, attributes this trend mainly to the more generous assistance provided by Germany.
According to the new analysis, approximately 5.6 to 6.7 million Ukrainians are living abroad. This means that about one in seven Ukrainians have left the country since the outbreak of the war, in addition to millions of internally displaced people. Approximately 1.3 million Ukrainians are believed to be living in Russia or Belarus, while the remaining 4.3 to 5.4 million are mainly in the EU. The majority of refugees are often highly qualified women, with 18 percent of them being between the ages of 35 and 49, along with their children.
In der EU nimmt Deutschland im August mit 1,08 Millionen aufgenommenen Geflüchteten die Spitzenstellung ein, vor Polen mit 968.000 und der Tschechischen Republik mit 365.000. Nach dem Überfall waren die meisten Ukrainer zunächst in Polen geblieben, wo sich viele auf Netzwerke ukrainischer Arbeitnehmer stützen konnten, die im Nachbarland arbeiteten.
One significant reason for the increased importance of Germany is the state aid provided to refugees, according to study author Darija Mykhailyshna. „Many countries have reduced their assistance, but Germany is an exception.“ Currently, 56 percent of Ukrainian refugees living in Poland receive state aid, compared to 76 percent in Germany. In surveys, an increasing number of Ukrainians living in Poland, 62 percent, state that the assistance does not cover their basic needs. In contrast, the percentage of those in Germany who consider the aid to be insufficient has decreased to 9 percent, while the average for all other EU countries is 23 percent.
Großzügiges Deutschland
In Germany, refugees from Ukraine are entitled to citizen’s money (502 euros per month for adults, 318 to 420 euros for children), as well as additional assistance such as rental and heating cost subsidies. In other places, such as the Czech Republic, assistance has already been reduced due to the state’s strained financial situation, or incentives have been offered to encourage returnees, a strategy that Ireland and Switzerland are also experimenting with.
Ein Thema bleibt die Frage nach der Bereitschaft zur Rückkehr in das kriegszerstörte Land. Die Regierung in Kiew fürchtet, der Mangel an qualifizierten Fachkräften könnte das größte Hindernis für den kostspieligen Wiederaufbau werden.
According to the CES survey, 63 percent of refugees are planning to return. An important factor for this decision is the living and housing conditions in Ukraine. However, it is expected that the number of returnees will decrease as the war continues and people settle in and find or seek employment in their new location. The willingness to return decreases even more as current income increases. Some see better opportunities for their children abroad.
According to a study, an estimated 1.3 to 3.3 million Ukrainians could choose to stay abroad. Their absence would result in an annual economic growth reduction of 2.7 to 6.9 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.