Experten in naher Zukunft wieder wachsen.OECDIn the coming year, economic growth is expected to continue at a slow pace. At the same time, inflation is projected to remain high. According to the organization, global economic output is expected to increase by 3.0 percent this year, but only by 2.7 percent in 2024. This is a decrease from 3.3 percent in 2022.
The forecast for 2023 has been increased by 0.3 percentage points, while the forecast for 2024 has been lowered by 0.2 points. One important reason for the moderate outlook is the central banks‘ interest rate hikes to control inflation. High interest rates usually lead to fewer investments due to difficulties in financing. This is currently evident in the construction industry in Germany.
Neben Deutschland dürfte in diesem Jahr nur das schuldengeplagte
und auf internationale Finanzhilfen angewiesene Argentinien noch schrumpfen.
Alle anderen großen Industriestaaten wachsen – auch das von umfangreichen
Sanktionen belegte Russland. So schätzen die OECD-Experten, dass die deutsche
Wirtschaft dieses Jahr um 0,2 Prozent zurückgeht. Im Juni wurde noch eine
Stagnation für möglich gehalten. 2024 dürfte es dann für ein Wachstum von 0,9
Prozent reichen, was weniger ist als bisher erwartet.
The OECD recommends that central banks maintain their current course until there are clear signs that inflationary pressure has subsided. However, such signs have not yet emerged. Experts predict inflation rates of 5.5 percent in the Eurozone and 6.1 percent in Germany this year. By 2024, these rates are expected to decrease to 3.0 percent each. The European Central Bank aims for an optimal inflation rate of two percent for the economy. The United States, which began raising interest rates earlier, is expected to have inflation rates of 3.8 and 2.6 percent.