The number of home purchases is decreasing: Revenues in the real estate market decline by 29 percent.
According to a study, the activity in the German real estate market is expected to decline even further this year, following the slump in 2022. The Gewos Institute in Hamburg predicts that there will be only around 591,800 property transactions based on the deals registered by mid-year.
Das wären knapp ein Viertel weniger Abschlüsse als im bereits schwachen Jahr 2022 und der geringste Wert seit Beginn der gesamtdeutschen Zeitreihe im Jahr 1995. Das bundesweite Umsatzvolumen soll demnach um 29,1 Prozent auf rund 198,1 Milliarden Euro sinken. Es handele sich bei Umsatz und Fallzahlen jeweils um die stärksten jemals gemessenen Rückgänge, teilte das Institut mit.
„I cannot reword“
In the current year, the consequences of the increase in interest rates are becoming more apparent than in 2022, explained Gewos expert Sebastian Wunsch. The previously moderate decline in purchase prices cannot come close to compensating for the rise in financing costs. For owner-occupiers, buying property is becoming increasingly difficult as financing costs rise and high inflation diminishes purchasing power. Investors, on the other hand, are waiting due to uncertainty.
Wunsch emphasized that the current market situation is still characterized by a pronounced reluctance to buy. Currently, there are no significant changes expected in the market-determining factors for the rest of the year. The inflation rate is far from the central banks‘ target, so there is no expectation of a relief in interest rates in the medium term. As for purchase prices, a stabilization is expected by the end of the year as they are currently falling at a slower pace.
Für die Studie hat Gewos bundesweit Daten zu abgeschlossenen Grundstückskaufverträgen bei den Gutachterausschüssen und die damit verbundenen Umsätze analysiert.
In 2022, according to the survey, the revenue from real estate had plummeted to 279.4 billion euros, a decrease of 17.2 percent compared to the record year of 2021, marking the abrupt end of a long-standing boom. The number of transaction cases had also decreased by 16.1 percent to 787,700 in the same period.