Prognose für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung: Das IfW geht von einem stärkeren Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung aus.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the outlook for the German economy has further deteriorated. In their autumn forecast, economists predict a decline in economic performance by 0.5 percent, revising their summer forecast downward by 0.2 percentage points. They attribute this primarily to the weak industrial sector and the crisis in the construction industry, as well as declining consumer spending.

For the upcoming year, the IfW now has more sober expectations, projecting a 1.3 percent increase in gross domestic product, compared to the previous estimate of 1.8 percent. The economists do anticipate a significant decrease in inflation for the coming year, with a projected rate of 2.1 percent for both 2024 and 2025.

The German economy remains below its potential.

„I cannot reword“

The IfW assumes that the economy will only pick up speed again at the turn of the year. Although factors such as high sick leave and supply bottlenecks have decreased, the economy is not yet geared towards expansion.

Nach Ansicht von IfW-Konjunkturchef Stefan Kooths bleibt die Gesamtwirtschaft derzeit unter ihren Möglichkeiten. Zwar dürfte sich die Kapazitätsauslastung wieder erholen. „Allerdings liegt die Wirtschaftsleistung dann rund drei Prozent unter dem Niveau, das vor dem Ausbruch der Pandemie für die Jahre 2024 und 2025 möglich erschien“, sagte er.