Konjunkturprognose: EU-Kommission sieht Deutschland in der Rezession

Werftarbeiter in Wismar: Brüssel sieht wirtschaftliche Entwicklung skeptischer

Werftarbeiter in Wismar: Brüssel sieht wirtschaftliche Entwicklung skeptischer

Foto: Jens Büttner / dpa

According to the forecast of the EU Commission, the economy in the European Union is expected to grow slower this year than previously anticipated. The Commission predicts a growth rate of 0.8 percent for both the EU and the Eurozone, as stated in the estimation released on Monday in Brussels.

In the spring forecast presented in May, the Commission had anticipated a growth of 1.0 percent (1.1 percent for the Eurozone). The reason for the poorer outlook is also attributed to weak consumer spending in the first half of the year due to further increases in consumer prices.

In Deutschland wird die Wirtschaft der Schätzung zufolge in diesem Jahr um 0,4 Prozent schrumpfen. Im Mai war für die größte Volkswirtschaft der EU noch ein Wachstum von 0,2 Prozent vorhergesagt worden. Für das Jahr 2024 rechnet die Behörde nun mit einem Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft von 1,1 Prozent (vorher 1,4).

Many leading German research institutes have recently predicted a contraction of the largest economy in the currency area: The industrial location is particularly suffering from high energy costs and the weak global economic environment – especially due to China’s economic downturn.

Mehr zum Thema

EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni referred to the consequences of the Ukraine war, rising interest rates, and high inflation as „multiple headwinds“ that are slowing down growth more than anticipated in the spring.

Die Arbeitslosenquote ist äußerst gering.

The Vice President of the EU Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis, anticipates that a mild recovery will occur next year after a period of weakness, „supported by a strong labor market, record-low unemployment, and easing price pressure.“

The Commission also lowered its forecast for the coming year across the EU and now expects economic growth of 1.4 percent (previously 1.7). The agency estimates the economic surplus in the Eurozone for 2024 to be 1.3 percent (previously 1.6).

Mehr zum Thema

Die Inflationserwartung in der Eurozone wurde im Vergleich zum Frühjahr (5,8 Prozent) nach unten korrigiert – auf nunmehr 5,6 Prozent in diesem Jahr. Für 2024 werden 2,9 Prozent (vorher 2,8) erwartet.

The ECB will make a decision on Thursday regarding the benchmark interest rate: After nine consecutive increases, the currency guardians led by ECB President Christine Lagarde will discuss whether the series will continue or take a break. The current benchmark interest rate is now at 3.75 percent. The updated in-house economic forecasts, which will be available for the meeting, are likely to provide important guidance for the currency guardians.