The outlook of the Kiel IfW facade is gloomy.
Foto: IMAGO
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has once again lowered its already not particularly optimistic forecasts for the German economy. In its autumn forecast, economists expect a decline in economic output of 0.5 percent, revising the summer forecast (-0.3 percent) downward. The IfW stated that the reasons are primarily a weak industrial economy, the crisis in the construction industry, and declining consumer spending.
Für das kommende Jahr wird zwar wieder ein Wachstum erwartet, das mit 1,3 Prozent aber deutlich geringer ausfallen soll als noch im Juni mit 1,8 Prozent angenommen. 2025 soll es dann zu einem Plus von 1,5 Prozent reichen.
The prospects for the German economy have become gloomy, according to the IfW economists. While energy prices have significantly reduced, they remain considerably higher compared to the long-term average. As a result, a portion of energy-intensive production in the country is no longer profitable and is unlikely to become so again. This leads to a loss of production potential and necessitates the realignment of value chains.
„I cannot reword“
Das industrielle Exportgeschäft leide konjunkturell unter der derzeit globalen Investitionsschwäche, analysiert das IfW. »Im Baubereich schlagen die erheblich verteuerten Finanzierungskonditionen zu Buche, die vor allem den Wohnungsbau weiter auf Talfahrt schicken dürften.«
Forscher sehen auch positive Signale
The institute also recognizes positive forces alongside these negative factors. „The continued high order backlog is supportive of industrial activity,“ it said. The international environment is gradually improving, which should help revive foreign business. „Significant increases in purchasing power among broad consumer groups are gradually stimulating consumer sentiment within the domestic economy,“ the IfW added, referring to strong wage growth and expanded government transfers.
Zudem wird der Prognose zufolge die Inflation nachlassen. Zwar sollen die Verbraucherpreise in diesem Jahr mit 6,0 Prozent nur wenig langsamer steigen als 2022 mit 6,9 Prozent. Für die beiden kommenden Jahre rechnet das IfW aber nur noch mit einer Teuerungsrate von jeweils 2,1 Prozent. »Die Inflationswelle ebbt ab«, fassten die Forscherinnen und Forscher zusammen.
They observe light and shadow in the job market. „The current economic downturn will leave little trace on the job market, as the shortage of skilled workers continues to be significant.“ In this and the following year, an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent is expected, but it is projected to fall back to the 2022 level of 5.3 percent by 2025. „Due to demographic change, employment is unlikely to increase in the next two years,“ emphasized the IfW at the same time.