Konjunktur: Führende Wirtschaftsinstitute senken Konjunkturprognose für 2024

Leading economic researchers are significantly more pessimistic about the German economy next year. A weak global economy and rising interest rates, high inflation, and an energy crisis are causing a great deal of uncertainty among companies and consumers. As a result, the Munich Ifo Institute, the Essen-based RWI, and the IWH from Halle have lowered their economic forecasts for 2024, some of them significantly. This year, government advisors are already expecting a recession.

Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) dürfte 2024 demnach nur noch 1,4 Prozent statt der im Juni prognostizierten 1,5 Prozent wachsen, teilte das Ifo-Institut mit. Bereits in diesem Jahr rechnet das es mit einem Rückgang der deutschen Wirtschaftsleistung um 0,4 Prozent. Erst im Jahr 2025 dürfte die Wirtschaft dann wieder um 1,2 Prozent wachsen, prognostizieren die Forscher.

„I cannot reword“

The labor market may be more susceptible to the weak economy than previously thought. Researchers predict that the number of unemployed people will remain high at 2.59 million this year and 2.58 million next year. They now expect a decrease to around 2.43 million in 2025, rather than in the upcoming year. Additionally, the reduction in the state’s debt is projected to be slower than initially anticipated, decreasing from 92 billion euros to 80 billion euros next year and 70 billion euros by 2025.

„I cannot reword“

The RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research also revised its forecast: The institute expects an even stronger decline in GDP of 0.6 percent this year. This shows that the institute is even more pessimistic than it was in June, when it projected a decrease of 0.3 percent. The RWI also lowered its growth forecast for 2024 from two percent to 1.1 percent. The reason for these adjustments is that the „economic obstacles are decreasing slowly,“ explained the institute. Uncertainties surrounding the energy and economic crisis are causing concerns among businesses.

Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle setzte
seine Prognose in die Mitte. Es rechnet mit einem Abschwung des BIP um 0,5 Prozent in diesem Jahr, für das kommende Jahr aber wieder mit einem Plus von 0,9 Prozent. Der Grund sei, dass die Weltwirtschaft weiter an Schwung verliere, Produktion und Welthandel stagnierten.

„I cannot reword“

Nur der private Konsum stabilisiert sich

The Ifo Institute states that there is a positive development in private consumption, which is expected to gradually recover. According to Wollmershäuser, the increase in disposable household incomes will remain strong and, with slowly decreasing inflation rates, will also lead to an increase in purchasing power. The Ifo Institute predicts a 2.6 percent increase in consumer prices for the coming year. Inflation has recently weakened again, from 6.2 percent in July to 6.1 percent in August.