„I cannot reword“
DThe Ifo Institute has a more pessimistic outlook on the German economy next year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by only 1.4 percent in 2024, instead of the previously forecasted 1.5 percent, according to the Munich researchers‘ economic forecast released on Thursday. „Contrary to previous expectations, the recovery is likely to be absent in the second half of the year,“ said Ifo Chief Economist Timo Wollmershäuser regarding 2023. „The cooling trend continues, with almost all sectors experiencing a downturn.“ The economy is projected to grow by 1.2 percent in 2025.
The researchers also express concern about 2023 and confirm their assessment that the economy will shrink by 0.4 percent. However, the forecast remains unchanged only because the GDP is now significantly higher after a revision than it was in the summer, explained Wollmershäuser. „Without this revision, we would have lowered the forecast for economic growth this year by 0.3 percentage points to minus 0.7 percent.“
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) recently lowered its GDP forecast and now expects a decline of 0.5 percent – nearly twice as much as previously anticipated in early summer. According to their analysis, only Ireland and Estonia among the 20 Eurozone countries are also expected to shrink.
Privater Konsum soll Wirtschaft ankurbeln
According to the Ifo Institute, the bright spot in the second half of the year is expected to be private consumption. After significant losses in purchasing power in the first six months, it is expected to recover. „The increase in disposable household incomes will remain strong and, with slowly declining inflation rates, will also lead to an increase in purchasing power,“ said Wollmershäuser. According to the forecast, consumer prices are expected to remain high at six percent this year. However, annual inflation is expected to decrease noticeably and reach 2.6 percent in 2024 and fall to 1.9 percent in 2025.
Die Teuerung hatte sich im August abermals abgeschwächt – und zwar auf 6,1 Prozent von 6,2 Prozent im Juli. Zugleich ist die von der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) für den Euroraum anvisierte Marke von 2,0 Prozent mit zuletzt 5,3 Prozent noch längst nicht in Sichtweite.
Außerdem dürfte sich der Arbeitsmarkt laut Ifo-Institut weniger robust zeigen als zuvor gedacht. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen dürfte mit 2,59 Millionen in diesem und mit 2,58 Millionen im nächsten Jahr hoch bleiben. Mit einem Rückgang auf rund 2,43 Millionen rechnen die Forscherinnen und Forscher nun erst 2025 – und nicht schon für das nächste Jahr.
The increase in the state’s debt is expected to be slower than initially thought – decreasing from 92 billion euros to 80 billion next year and to 70 billion by 2025. However, the German trade surplus with foreign countries is expected to significantly increase to 6.9 percent of the economic output, compared to 3.7 percent in the previous year. This would exceed the EU’s recommended threshold of 6.0 percent.