DThe European Central Bank (ECB) warns of higher costs and increasing risks for households, companies, and banks in case of delays in the fight against climate change. „We need more decisive political measures to ensure a faster transition to a net-zero economy in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement,“ warned ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday when presenting the results of the central bank’s second macroeconomic climate stress test. „If we continue as before, the risks and costs for the economy and the financial system will increase,“ said de Guindos.
In the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, the objective is stated as stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius in order to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change. Given the ongoing climate change, environmentalists and scientists consistently call for greater efforts, such as reducing the emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO₂).
Drei Übergangsszenarien
The ECB Climate Stress Test examines the resilience of households, companies, and banks in three transition scenarios. Firstly, an „accelerated transition“ with the advancement of „green“ investments, which would lead to a reduction in emissions by 2030 in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Zweitens ein „später Übergang“, bei dem der Kampf gegen den Klimawandel erst 2026 beschleunigt würde, aber immer noch intensiv genug wäre, um bis 2030 die Ziele zu erreichen. Drittens ein „verzögerter Übergang“ ebenfalls ab 2026, der aber nicht ehrgeizig genug wäre, um die Paris-Ziele bis 2030 zu erreichen.
The conclusion of the ECB is that „the results show that companies and households clearly benefit from a faster transition.“ While a quicker transition is initially associated with higher investments and energy costs, the financial risks decrease significantly in the medium term in this case. According to the ECB, approximately 2.9 million non-financial corporations and 600 banks in the euro area were included in the test.
Ich kann das nicht umformulieren.
According to the information, banks would face a significant increase in credit risk if the fight against climate change had to be accelerated at a later date, resulting in the need for quick investments at higher costs. In this case, financial institutions would expect their credit risk to increase by more than 100 percent by 2030 compared to 2022, according to the analysis. However, in the most favorable scenario, known as the „accelerated transition,“ it is estimated that the credit risk would only rise by 60 percent.
Source: faz.net