According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the prospects for the German economy have further deteriorated. In their autumn forecast, economists expect a decline in economic performance of 0.5 percent, revising their summer forecast downward by 0.2 percentage points. They attribute this primarily to the weak industrial climate, crisis in the construction industry, and declining consumer spending.
For the upcoming year, the IfW now has more sober expectations with a 1.3 percent increase in gross domestic product. Previously, it had assumed a 1.8 percent increase. The economists still anticipate a significant decrease in inflation for the next year, with projections of 2.1 percent for both 2024 and 2025.
IfW: Deutsche Wirtschaft bleibt unter Möglichkeiten
„Ich kann es nicht umformulieren.“
The IfW assumes that the economy will only pick up speed again at the turn of the year. Although factors such as high sickness rates and supply shortages have decreased, the economy is not yet geared towards expansion.
Nach Ansicht von IfW-Konjunkturchef Stefan Kooths bleibt die Gesamtwirtschaft derzeit unter ihren Möglichkeiten. Zwar dürfte sich die Kapazitätsauslastung wieder erholen. „Allerdings liegt die Wirtschaftsleistung dann rund drei Prozent unter dem Niveau, das vor dem Ausbruch der Pandemie für die Jahre 2024 und 2025 möglich erschien“, sagte er.