Weltregion unter Spannung: Vor welchen Herausforderungen der Indopazifik steht

The growth is carried by the South: The region between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, including countries like India, Indonesia, China, and Australia, will continue to be the driver of global growth. Infrastructure, digitalization, education, and a growing middle class will ensure demand and progress. However, the growth will shift towards the South, specifically Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, and India.

Kampf um Wasser: Schon vor 30 Jahren warnten Analysten, der nächste Krieg werde im Himalaja um Wasser geführt werden. China kontrolliert die Ströme, die Südasien braucht, an ihren Quellen. Einen neuerlichen Krieg der heutigen Atommächte China und Indien wird sich niemand leisten können. Ausgeschlossen ist er nicht. Zumal sich das Ringen um Wasser angesichts von Hitze und Dürren verschärfen wird.

Competition for the Global South: Just 20 years ago, China refused to take on top positions in international organizations offered to it. Today, China and the Global South have created their own formats with development banks such as the AIIB, the BRICS club, or the Boao Forum. Fragmentation will accelerate. Just as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly criticized as „Western“ or the World Trade Organization (WTO) is being hindered by the Americans, the Global South will present stronger organizations. Industrialized countries must adapt to occasional and changing alliances. Developing countries will become more selective in choosing their partners. Both sides are vying for votes from Africa, the Pacific region, and Central Asia. This will make development processes more challenging and costly. Globalization has brought significant prosperity around the world and greatly reduced poverty. However, the expected democratic benefits have not been achieved.

China’s aggression is expected to increase both internally and externally. Despite being shaken by a self-inflicted crisis, with hundreds of billions of dollars at stake in the real estate sector and the retirement security of many people in jeopardy, President Xi Jinping has solidified his power and there is no sign of unrest. However, globalization has brought about an ironic twist: the West has helped China become strong, but now China’s state-supported production threatens jobs and social structures in industrialized countries. In order to curb a shift to the right in those countries, America and Europe are resorting to protectionist measures. Within China itself, ideology is now surpassing the rational planned economy. When the Australian government demanded an investigation into the origin of the coronavirus, China harmed itself by imposing years-long import restrictions on coal, wood, wine, and seafood.

China is currently engaging in aggressive behavior towards its neighboring countries. However, the ruling elite in Beijing has learned from Russia’s misguided attack on Ukraine. They understand that before launching an attack on Taiwan, they need to address their domestic economic crisis, internationalize the Yuan to avoid severe sanctions, and continue to strengthen their military. Nevertheless, if the next American government maintains its current stance, Beijing will face significant challenges in five to ten years. Therefore, it is more likely that they will try to maintain the status quo with occasional threats rather than engaging in a war over Taiwan. However, two scenarios pose a risk: a mistake or accident involving the closely positioned military forces near Taiwan could trigger an attack, or if the crisis in China worsens rapidly, Xi may believe that achieving national unity can only be accomplished through an „attack as defense“ strategy.

Asien altert: Bis 2050 wird sich die Zahl der Menschen über 60 Jahre im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum auf 1,3 Milliarden verdoppeln. In Ostasien wird dann einer von drei Menschen mehr als 60 Jahre alt sein. Deren ganz überwiegende Zahl genießt weder Renten noch sozialen Schutz. Damit bleiben die Familien und Arbeitskraft als Lebensversicherung.

The Axis of Evil: The West has only seemingly adopted the strategy of „de-risking.“ Beijing has been practicing it for years. China will try to remain as independent as possible and continue to secure natural resources around the world. It is aided by an axis of despots and dictators from Africa to strategically important Myanmar (Burma) and North Korea. Beijing and Moscow will strive to deepen the dependence of developing countries through financial aid and the cheap sale of weapons and energy.

Supply chains as an advantage: The German supply chain law is considered typical German overregulation in Asia, making it difficult to control within the often more than ten production stages, especially in the textile industry. However, the Indo-Pacific countries have recognized the advantage they have as suppliers: Indonesia, for example, imposes export bans on an increasing number of raw materials. These materials must be processed within the country instead of being extracted and sold as before. This promotes job creation and technology transfer. So far, this new concept has been mainly utilized by Chinese investors with low environmental standards. European companies, especially those in the automotive sector, could have enormous opportunities here if they didn’t have to worry about supply chain standards and the violation of human and labor rights. The new resource partnership with Australia appears to be groundbreaking: Previously, Australia supplied 90 percent of its lithium for further processing to China. However, corporations like Siemens could now carry out this processing in Australia and then directly deliver to Europe.

Democracies face challenges: Living conditions in the Indo-Pacific have greatly improved, especially for women. Paradoxically, this was partly due to their exploitation through low wages, as the women who had to endure exploitation primarily invested in a better life for their children. However, those who believed that the second, voluntary opening of the region to global trade after the colonial era would inevitably lead to an improvement in human rights were mistaken in most cases. Only a few countries have fought for and achieved freedom rights, with Timor-Leste being a notable exception. Given their disadvantaged starting point, many people are satisfied with just the hope of a better life for their children. Decreasing purchasing power, the connectivity provided by mobile internet, increasing impoverishment, and the widening gap between the rich and the poor will increase the risk of social unrest in the coming decades. This is accompanied by a call for a „strong hand“ or a „good dictator.“ The model of Western democracies is seen as weak and unsustainable. Ho Ching, the wife of Singapore’s Prime Minister and longtime head of the wealthy state fund Temasek, confidently stated, „SG is not a democracy in the American understanding of a liberal democracy, where the feelings of criminals matter more than the pain of victims, and where money takes precedence over fairness.“

Small islands with weight: The governments of the Pacific islands have voices at the United Nations. This becomes important, for example, when condemning Russia or Germany’s push for the Security Council. However, these atolls also sit on immense underwater wealth: proteins in the form of fish and mineral resources beneath the seabed, which the world is beginning to negotiate for extraction. Above all, they form island bridges to the resource-rich land of Australia and the doorstep of America – as was already shown in World War II. Naval bases and corridors for submarines open up operational areas. Beijing recognized the importance of these islands very early on. The USA, Australia, and Europe are now following suit. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently announced in all seriousness, „our new embassy in Fiji will not be just any embassy that is added, but it will be one of our most important embassies worldwide.“ There will be a formation of camps in the Indo-Pacific, where development aid, support in the fight against climate change, and military empowerment will play a growing role.

Climate change challenges the military: Climate policy will increasingly become not only an economic concern but also a matter of security. Firstly, there will be a rise in disasters, particularly affecting vulnerable coastal and mountainous states in the Indo-Pacific region. The military is already required to intervene in these situations. Secondly, climate change will lead to migration movements, necessitating the military’s involvement in border protection.

Pragmatism wins: One of the major winners in the struggle for the Indo-Pacific is the Arab region. The proposed corridor between India and Europe, with which the United States and its partners want to compete with China’s „New Silk Road,“ is a hopeful prospect – but it shows where the journey could lead. If Europe succeeded in binding the Arab region and India through closer economic connections, Europe’s global influence would greatly increase. The price includes engaging with countries like Saudi Arabia, which not only trample on human rights in the case of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. However, a new attitude has emerged in China’s business dealings and in the purchase of liquefied gas: turning a blind eye in order to gain geostrategic and geo-economic advantages. It has been recognized in the Indo-Pacific that this pragmatism contradicts the advocated „values-based foreign policy.“ The „softening“ of the EU’s trade agreements to avoid overly strict criteria is welcomed. The increasing fragmentation of the world will require seeking compromises with individual governments.

Power struggle in the Indian Ocean: The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has learned a lot from China. Since China has secured its supply routes from Arabia through ports in Africa, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Burma, India is rapidly strengthening its navy. New Delhi has realized the significance of the Indian Ocean in geostrategic disputes over supply. It will take at least 20 years for India’s defense forces to be able to compete with China. Beijing is well aware of this and will try to secure advantages until there is some semblance of a balance of terror.

Japan is often underestimated, but it is actually at the center of the most important geopolitical hotspot outside of Europe. Due to its stance on World War II, Japan was isolated in Asia for many decades. However, through a coordinated approach of economics and politics, Japan has managed to regain influence. Today, Japan competes with China in countries like Indonesia and Thailand for infrastructure projects and influence. They are also one of the major foreign investors in India. With their military buildup, initial steps towards NATO, and attempts to reconcile with South Korea, Japan offers the West better opportunities than ever before to build a partnership against China.

Große Gesundheitsrisiken: Die Übervölkerung weiter Teile Asiens, mangelnde Gesundheitsvorsorge, Luftverschmutzung und Gewichtszunahme dank westlicher Ernährung bei abnehmender körperlicher Arbeit führen im Indopazifik zum raschen Anstieg von Krankheiten wie Diabetes. Die Verschreibungsrate von Antibiotika im Tropenklima erhöht Resistenzen. Dabei haben die meisten Menschen keinen Versicherungsschutz – Indien hat gezeigt, wie insbesondere die Armen sterben wie die Fliegen, bricht eine Epidemie über sie herein. Bei einer erneuten Krankheitswelle drohen soziale Unruhen und ein Lieferstopp für wichtige Medikamente und ihre Grundstoffe aus China und Indien. Auch bei Medizin muss der Westen seine Abhängigkeit so schnell wie möglich verringern.

Australia, the fortunate country, will play a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific region in the coming decades. It possesses valuable natural resources that are vital for China’s stability. Additionally, Canberra has strategically aligned itself with the United States, even purchasing nuclear-powered submarines. Australia has the potential to supply North Asia with an abundance of hydrogen, just as it currently does with gas. The era of disregarding Australia is over, and Europe must acknowledge its pivotal position in the Pacific and at the start of value chains.

Urbanisierung als Risiko: Menschen zieht es dorthin, wo sie für sich und ihre Kinder Chancen sehen. Die Folgen des Klimawandels, mangelnde Infrastruktur, fehlende Erwerbschancen auf dem Land und ausbleibende Bildung treiben sie in die Städte. Die aber sind schon jetzt hoffnungslos überfordert. Die Verslummung der Großstädte Asiens wird zunehmen. Wie in Delhi während des G-20-Treffens werden die Armenviertel mit Planen verhängt, um das Bild zu schönen. Im Krisenfall etwa einer Pandemie dürften diese Viertel geschlossen und bewacht werden. Mutigen Investoren bieten sich unbegrenzte Chancen etwa bei der Abfallentsorgung oder der Wasserversorgung, aber auch im Bildungssektor.

The arms race will be expensive: The growing confrontation between Washington and Beijing is leading to polarization in the Indo-Pacific region. The arms race is accelerating as governments prepare for internal conflicts, unrest, and even war. The South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Himalayas, Korea, and Taiwan remain hotspots of tension. However, the money flowing into weapons is lacking for education and civilian infrastructure. As a result, the arms race creates a deceptive sense of security as it exacerbates social tensions.

Education remains the opportunity: If there was a key category for development, it would be education. However, it is and remains neglected, also because its return on investment is only recognized after several electoral periods. But if the thesis that artificial intelligence revolutionizes manufacturing is correct, things do not look good for the army of around 1.1 billion workers in the Indo-Pacific: they would have to quickly qualify themselves or they will be left behind. This will, triggered by climate change, diseases, and weak social systems, lead to cross-border migration movements. This could result in new regional conflicts.