Hohe Zinsen, teure Energie und ein schwacher Export lähmen die deutsche Wirtschaft. Das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) rechnet deshalb in diesem Jahr mit einem Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um bis zu 0,5 Prozent, wie aus dem nun veröffentlichten Konjunkturbericht hervorgeht.
The scientists emphasized that due to its high focus on global markets and high export share, the German economy is disproportionately affected by geo-economic shocks such as the Ukraine war and tensions with China. Additionally, with its comparatively high share of industry and the significance of energy-intensive industries, it also experiences existing supply risks and cost shocks more intensely than other countries. At the same time, domestic demand suffers from high inflation, with private consumption acting as a brake on economic growth.
The experts from IW predict that the economic performance will only be at the level of the end of 2019 by the end of 2023. They anticipate a decline in economic performance for the third and fourth quarters of 2023.
Mehr Arbeitslose erwartet
The economic downturn is also affecting the job market. In 2023, the employer-friendly institute expects an average of 2.58 million unemployed, 160,000 more than the previous year. This would increase the unemployment rate to just over 5.5 percent. While major layoffs are not expected, unemployed individuals are increasingly having difficulty finding new employment. According to experts, the inflation rate in 2023 is expected to be only slightly below the previous year’s level at 6.5 percent. However, the institute emphasized that significant wage increases, allowances, and transfers are effectively countering the loss of purchasing power. As a result, real consumer spending is expected to be only around 1.25 percent lower than the previous year’s value.
According to the forecast, two contrasting developments are evident in the state finances: Due to significantly dampened economic prospects, tax revenues are expected to be lower than previously predicted, while the government can anticipate lower costs for controlling electricity and gas prices. The state deficit is projected to amount to 97 billion euros or just under 2.5 percent of economic output this year. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize at 65 percent. „Given the current economic circumstances, the current level of government debt can be considered manageable,“ concludes the IW.