Es war nur ein Satz in der diesjährigen Rede zur Lage der EU von Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen, aber er hatte es in sich. Die Europäische Kommission leitet eine Untersuchung gegen Importe von Elektrofahrzeugen aus China ein, die zu Strafzöllen führen könnte. Es geht dabei nicht um Preisdumping, sondern um den Verdacht, dass die Hersteller durch die umfassenden nationalen, regionalen und lokalen Subventionen derart bessergestellt werden, dass die europäischen Hersteller auf ihrem Heimatmarkt nicht mehr mithalten können.
The European Commission is responding to the significant increase in electric vehicles from Chinese production by conducting an investigation. This includes cars manufactured in China by EU and US manufacturers that are being sold in the EU market for electric vehicles. According to the authority, the market share has risen from practically zero percent three years ago to 8 percent currently. It could reach 15 percent in one and a half to two years. As this has severe consequences for domestic production, it justifies an anti-subsidy investigation by the EU. The prices of Chinese electric vehicles are on average 20 percent lower than those manufactured in Europe.
„I cannot reword“
Chinas Überkapazitäten steigen weiter
Deutschland galt in Brüssel bisher als skeptisch, weil es Gegenmaßnahmen Pekings und einen Handelskrieg fürchte. „Ich begrüße, dass die EU-Kommission jetzt vertieft in diese Marktsegmente hineinschaut“, sagte nun aber Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck (Grüne). „Was sollte man denn sonst tun, wenn man den Verdacht hat, dass es unlauteren Wettbewerb gibt?“ Es gehe aber nicht darum, leistungsfähige günstige chinesische Elektroautos vom europäischen Markt fernzuhalten, betonte Habeck.
China has significant excess capacity, which is continuously increasing. The production capacity is expected to rise from 5.7 million units in 2021 to potentially 15 million units soon. The domestic market cannot absorb this. At the same time, countries like the USA, India, and Turkey are protecting themselves against Chinese electric vehicles by imposing high tariffs. The EU imposes a standard tariff of 10 percent.
The Commission has up to nine months after the official initiation of the investigation to impose provisional tariffs. The decision on permanent punitive tariffs must be made within a total of 13 months. The likelihood of imposing tariffs is high. Anti-subsidy investigations rarely end without them. It is difficult to predict how high the tariffs will be. Recently, the Commission has imposed tariffs between 10 and 20 percent after anti-subsidy investigations against China.
The subsidies that the Commission is focusing on affect the entire supply chain, from raw materials to batteries and manufacturing, to export promotion. The exact extent is difficult to quantify. „This also makes research difficult for the EU,“ says consultant Jochen Siebert, who has been working in China’s automotive industry for a decade and a half. The tax breaks alone for electric car buyers, which are also available in many European countries, will amount to over 200 billion RMB (26 billion euros) by 2022, said Deputy Finance Minister Xu Hongcai in June. At that time, the government announced a four-year extension of the measures, estimated to be worth 67 billion euros. Each electric car receives tax breaks of nearly 4,000 euros.
For a long time, there were also purchase incentives, which have now expired. In addition, there are aids for manufacturers, mostly from local governments. Some companies are state-owned and closely linked to provincial governments, also serving as a means of local job creation. This also benefits joint ventures between German and Chinese manufacturers or the Tesla factory in Shanghai.
Autozölle oder andere Drohkulissen von China?
Siebert erwartet nun, dass China in Kürze reagieren wird. Er schließt nicht aus, dass Autozölle oder andere Drohungen eingesetzt werden könnten. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer vom Duisburger Center of Automotive Research warnt vor einem möglichen schlimmen Szenario für die deutsche Autoindustrie. Wenn die EU-Kommission Antisubventionsregeln gegen die chinesische Autoindustrie durchsetzt, wäre das ein schwerer Schlag für die deutsche Autoindustrie.
Die erwirtschafte ein Drittel des Umsatzes in China und müsse die Folgen chinesischer Gegenreaktionen allein tragen. Die Franzosen seien dagegen in China nicht präsent und fürchteten die Expansion der chinesischen Hersteller in Europa. „Die Franzosen wollen sich wieder einmal hinter einer Mauer verstecken. Doch wenn die EU diese Mauer aufbaut, ist es die deutsche Autoindustrie, die auf die Nase fällt.“
The Commission is likely to have classified the investigation as „ex officio“ – meaning on its own initiative – rather than the usual response to a complaint from companies or a country. This is intended to make it more difficult for Beijing to single out EU countries as „scapegoats“ and then target them specifically, as it did recently with Lithuania. The German Automotive Industry Association (VDA) responded cautiously. A spokesperson said that the VDA generally advocates for free, fair, and rules-based trade.